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Próxima Palestra de “Distinguished Lecturer” – “Creating Value from Uncertainty and Flexibility” com o Prof. Reidar B. Bratvold
No próximo dia 14 de Novembro, o Professor Dr. Reidar B. Bratvold irá apresentar a palestra “Creating Value from Uncertainty and Flexibility”, dentro do programa SPE Distinguished Lectures.
A apresentação e brunch, será na sede do IBP, na Av. Almirante Barroso, 52, 21º andar, das 12:00 às 14:00 hs, e será gratuita para os sócios do SPE, tendo um custo de R$ 50,00 para os não sócios. Aguarde e-mail do SPE para confirmar sua presença.
“Creating Value from Uncertainty and Flexibility”
An increasing number of oil and gas companies use decision analytic methods to deal with complex and uncertain decisions, but they still yield consistent underperformance in typical business metrics (cost, production rates, time to start, etc.) leading to less value than expected, or, more perniciously, than possible. Uncertainty per se is not the culprit, rather a failure to make the best decisions under uncertainty—which are often non intuitive. The real value-destroyers are bias and failing to plan for, and exploit, the different ways reality might evolve. If you underestimate the real uncertainty, you are likely to underinvest in managing its consequences. Making the best decisions requires an accurate assessment of uncertainty (unbiased, neither optimistic nor pessimistic) and an unbiased approach to managing its consequences— putting as much effort into capturing upside opportunities as into mitigating risks. The talk will illustrate and discuss how to create value from uncertainty and flexibility by applying an option-pricing methodology that explicitly focuses on upside possibilities.
Reidar B. Bratvold is professor of petroleum investment and decision analysis at the University of Stavanger. Before his career in academia, Bratvold spent 15 years in the industry in various technical and management roles. He is a coauthor of the SPE book Making Good Decisions. Bratvold has twice previously served as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer. He is the 2015 recipient of the North Sea Region SPE Management and Information Award and serves as the executive editor for the SPE Economics & Management Journal. Bratvold is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals and a member of the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences. He holds a PhD in petroleum engineering and an MSc in mathematics, both from Stanford University, and has studied business and management science at INSEAD and Stanford.